ACC Bracket Rundown
Locks: Louisville and Duke
Both Louisville and Duke are essentially locks at this point in the season, both have had good starts to the season and both will earn high seeds. Duke looks poised to be in the one seed discussion as they currently have the better overall resume thanks to wins against Kansas and at Michigan State. The Blue Devils will look to finally win the regular-season ACC title and if they are able to do so, a one seed is the likely outcome. Louisville has fallen behind in the one seed discussion due to the lacking amount of big-time wins, that being said, a big run in ACC could get them back in that discussion.
Will likely be in: Florida State
The Seminoles rank 27th in the NET which is a little too low to call them a lock for the NCAA Tournament. They do have a win at Florida as well as against both Purdue and Tennessee, which will hold up. Assuming this team takes care of business, they will be dancing and could do so with a Top-5 seed.
Not in yet: Virginia
Hold your horses with the Virginia will be in the tournament and make it to the Sweet 16 talk, they are not even close to lock status yet. This Virginia team ranks 67th in the NET and has no quadrant one wins to date. In fact, their signature win to this point is a three-point win against a bubblicious Arizona State team. Add to that that they got obliterated in a road game at Purdue and lost to a South Carolina team that just lost to Stetson. Not only is it is a disgrace that Virginia is ranked but their spot in March Madness is on the rocks.
Work to do: NC State
NC State probably will wind up being in the NCAA Tournament as they rank 32nd in the NET, which is solid. Their best win is at UNC Greensboro which is also solid, but nothing to hang your hat on. Assuming they take care of business in league play, they will almost certainly be in the tournament.
Bubble: North Carolina, Miami, and Virginia Tech
All three of these teams have good wins to speak of which will help these them come Selection Sunday. Virginia Tech probably has the best resume to date, as they rank 46th in the NET with a win against Michigan State, but the Hokies are also the team least likely to sustain their success. North Carolina has that Oregon win, which will help, but they also have a NET ranking of 91, which will need to change dramatically, and quickly. As for Miami, wins against Temple and Illinois are decent and a NET ranking of 83 isn’t out of it.
I think most likely one of these teams ends up going 11-7 in league play and gets that sixth bid.
Outside looking in: Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is a team that is most likely to climb into the bubble picture as they rank 75th in the NET and have the Florida State win, both things that can help them contend. Syracuse is 80th in the NET which is not ideal and probably keeps them outside the NCAA Tournament, but maybe they go on a run in league play. As for Notre Dame, they are good on paper and may put it together in league play, although a NET ranking of 100 will handicap them.
Long-shots: Everyone else
If your team wasn’t already talked about it is because they don’t have a realistic chance to make the NCAA Tournament. Maybe they win the ACC Tournament or win the rest of their regular-season games to get into the Big Dance (not going to happen). Minus that, any team not mentioned will be missing the Big Dance.